The diplomatic dynamics emerging around the Ukraine conflict in recent days — particularly the content of the U.S.-proposed peace initiative and Europe’s limited role in the process — have strengthened assessments among international experts that Ukraine may be forced into defeat through diplomatic means. Closed-door negotiations between Washington and Moscow, Russia’s increasing military pressure on the frontline, and intensified missile strikes on Kyiv create the impression that Ukraine is being squeezed not only militarily but also politically. Provisions such as the use of frozen assets, limits on the size of the Ukrainian army, and the weakening of NATO prospects pose serious risks that could fundamentally reshape Kyiv’s security architecture.
In an interview with ARB24 Television, political analyst Ahmad Shahidov stated that various versions of the U.S. peace proposal contain elements that contradict Ukraine’s national interests and effectively push Kyiv toward compelled concessions. He explained that limiting the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, downgrading its NATO accession prospects, and the possibility of leaving certain occupied territories under Russian control for an indefinite period seriously undermine the country’s long-term security outlook. Shahidov noted that Europe’s participation in the process “only in a limited format,” despite bearing most of the financial burden, reinforces the sense that Kyiv is being left alone diplomatically — increasing the likelihood that Ukraine may lose more at the negotiation table.
Ahmad Shahidov added that the internal political tensions in Ukraine — particularly the resignation of Presidential Administration head Andriy Yermak amid a corruption scandal — could further weaken Kyiv’s negotiating position. According to him, the combination of Russia’s continued missile attacks and confidential U.S.–Russia talks creates a legitimate concern that Ukraine could be pressured into a settlement without its own will being taken into account: “The process is unfolding in such a way that Ukraine appears less like an actor and more like an object of geopolitical bargaining. If decisions are shaped outside Kyiv’s political will, this will amount to forcing Ukraine into defeat — and such a peace would be neither lasting nor just.”
