Recent statements by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mixail Qaluzin have intensified geopolitical discussions around the South Caucasus. He described the release of Russian citizens detained in Azerbaijan as a priority for Moscow and linked it to the normalization of bilateral relations. At the same time, he warned about the consequences of Armenia moving closer to Western structures and emphasized that such a course could contradict obligations within the Eurasian Economic Union. The different tones of these same-day messages demonstrate that Moscow is shaping a new political approach toward the region.
Commenting on the issue, political analyst Ahmad Shahidov said on ARB24 Television that the official visit of Ilham Aliyev to Serbia reflects Azerbaijan’s growing international influence. According to him, the expansion of strategic partnership between Baku and Belgrade further strengthens Azerbaijan’s political and energy role in Europe.
Ahmad Shahidov later addressed the main topic, noting that Moscow’s message to Baku is not pressure but an attempt at dialogue: “Russia understands that a new reality has emerged in the region and relations with Azerbaijan cannot be built on confrontation. Therefore, it is trying to reopen political channels through a humanitarian issue.”
He added that the rhetoric toward Yerevan carries a completely different meaning: “The message to Armenia is an explicit warning. Moscow views Western integration as a weakening of its sphere of influence and signals possible consequences in advance. Thus, Russia simultaneously seeks to soften relations with Azerbaijan while pushing Armenia to make a strategic choice.”
