Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen are advancing along the Red Sea coast in an attempt to strengthen their positions around the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis’ advance toward Mocha and Dhubab and their efforts to expand control over areas near the strait pose a serious risk to international maritime shipping and global trade. If the Houthis were to gain full control of Bab el-Mandeb, the development could trigger a broader geopolitical confrontation extending far beyond Yemen.
Political analyst Ahmad Shahidov, speaking to ARB24 Television, said that the Houthis gaining full control over Bab el-Mandeb could also have serious strategic consequences for Iran. According to Shahidov, such a development could push the United States, Saudi Arabia and other regional and international actors to mobilize within a broader coalition against Iran. “Iran is currently trying to distance itself from responsibility by insisting that the Houthis are an independent Yemeni actor. However, if the Houthis take control of Bab el-Mandeb, this will no longer be simply a Yemeni issue. It will be viewed as an expansion of Iran’s regional influence, leading to increased international pressure on Tehran,” he said.
Ahmad Shahidov noted that although the Houthis’ seizure of Bab el-Mandeb might initially appear to be a strategic advantage for Iran, in the long term it could leave Tehran facing much broader international pressure. According to the political analyst, such a scenario could lead to an increased naval presence by the United States and its allies in the region, a more active role for Saudi Arabia, and the formation of a new political and military coalition against Iran. “The advantage gained by the Houthis could ultimately come back to haunt Tehran. Iran’s main risk is that the crisis created by the Houthis in Bab el-Mandeb could trigger a much broader international coalition against Iran itself,” Shahidov emphasized.
